
Predicting the Future:
The Delphi Tradition
The 1978 MSG Questions
The participants were asked:-
When do you think the following events will occur?
- More than 50% of all chemical structure determinations are achieved by use of mass spectrometry alone.
- Widespread use of machines incorporating at least two analytical techniques as well as one or more separation techniques (e.g. GC/IR/MS).
- Sensitivity of a mass spectrometer allows quantiative determination to the attogram level.
- Widespread use of remotely controlled, remotely monitored GC/MS units on process plants.
- Most analytical instruments incorporate automatic sample prepatation facilities.
- Routine use of pocket-sized mass spectrometers as environmental monitors.
- More than 75% of all mass spectrometers fitted with a liquid chromatograph inlet system.
- Extensive use of voice-controlled analytical instrumentation.
- Total abandonment of electron impact in favour of softionisation techniques (FD, CI)
- Widespread use of completely automated GC/MS in hospitals, factories, control labs as "answers only" machines.
- All commercial analytical instruments contain an information store equivalent to at least 100 times their normal single analysis output.
- Computer program beats the world chess champion for the first time.
- Complete MS detector for gas chromatograph does not exceed 30% of the cost of the chromatograph itself.
- Total disappearance of the analogue chart record from routine use.
- Accurate mass measurement of total mass spectra as a routine technique completely supercedes conventional low resolution techniques.
- Most analytical instruments have self diagnosis of fault conditions and can take actions within themselves to correct faults.
- Total demise of the magnetic sector mas spectrometer.
- Widespread on-line use of networked data banks holding reference analytical data (IR. NMR, MS, thermodynamic and physical data)
- First court case with conviction resting on the use of GC/MS analysis with only computer identification of compunds through a library search.
- Extensive use of wrist-watch sized computers with power equal to the IBM 370 for direct coupled information gathering from laboratory instrumentation.
And the results...?(approximately, of course...)
|
Question | Prediction | "Never"
vote,% | Question | Prediction | "Never"
vote,% | |
| 1 | 1986 | 43 | 11 | 1987 | 3 |
| 2 | 1985 | 3 | 12 | 1987 | 15 |
| 3 | 1988 | 9 | 13 | 1988 | 36 |
| 4 | 1987 | 4 | 14 | 1987 | 25 |
| 5 | 1987 | 7 | 15 | 1987 | 13 |
| 6 | 1990 | 3 | 16 | 1989 | 3 |
| 7 | 1986 | 8 | 17 | 1993 | 54 |
| 8 | 1997 | 14 | 18 | 1986 | 0 |
| 9 | 1992 | 61 | 19 | 1986 | 19 |
| 10 | 1989 | 4 | 20 | 1996 | 5 |
|
But if you really want to see the results in proper detail, then you'll have to read the "Spectroscopy Europe" article, where the answers are plotted graphically.
And if you want to think more about the future of computing. I can always recommend "Towards the Ultimate Personal Computer", Chapter 7 of "Computers and Instrumentation" (ISBN 0-85501-452-0, Heyden &Son, London, 1981) by a not unknown (but still struggling!) author. . .
"First catch your lion ..."(detail from the Siphnian treasury frieze)
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Last Update, 10-Nov-95